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Space Weather Update

2014/01/02

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A minor (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm is in progress on Jan. 2nd in response to a solar wind stream, which is buffeting Earth’s magnetosphere. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE: 2014 began with a bang. At 18:54 UT on January 1st, big sunspot AR1936 erupted, producing a strong M9-class solar flare. The explosion did produce a CME that could deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field later this week. NOAA analysts are still evaluating this possibility.

The M9-flare of New Year’s Day followed close on the heels of an M6-flare on New Year’s Eve. Sunspot AR1936 produced both explosions. The New Year’s Eve event produced a minor, slow-moving CME that is not expected to disturb Earth’s magnetic field if and when it does arrive.

Sunspot AR1936 is active, but new sunspot AR1944 looks even more potent. The behemoth active region emerged over the sun’s southeastern limb on Jan 1st. Because of foreshortening near the sun’s limb, the complexity of AR1944′s magnetic field is still unknown. The sheer size of the sunspot, however, suggests it is capable of strong flares. The emergence of AR1944 combined with the ongoing activity from AR1936 has prompted NOAA forecasters to raise the odds of eruptions on Jan. 2nd to 70% for M-flares and 30% for X-flares.

On Jan. 2, 2014, the NASA all-sky camera network reported 6 fireballs.
(6 sporadics)

On January 3, 2014 there were potentially hazardous asteroids.

http://spaceweather.com/

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 733
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 02 2103 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2014 Jan 02 2059 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 – Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft – Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 880
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 02 1945 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2014 Jan 02 1943 UTC
Valid To: 2014 Jan 03 0400 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 – Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft – Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2098
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 02 1911 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2014 Jan 02 1855 UTC
Station: GOES13
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1686
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 02 1909 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2014 Jan 02 1908 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2204
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 02 1841 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2014 Jan 02 1840 UTC
Valid To: 2014 Jan 03 0400 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 560
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 02 1308 UTC

CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 559
Original Issue Time: 2013 Dec 31 1707 UTC

Comment: Conditions are no longer warranted for G1 activity.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft – Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 879
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 02 0444 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2014 Jan 02 0442 UTC
Valid To: 2014 Jan 02 1000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 – Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft – Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 110
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 01 1915 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 01 1840 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Jan 01 1852 UTC
End Time: 2014 Jan 01 1903 UTC
X-ray Class: M9.9
Optical Class: 2b
Location: S14W47
NOAA Scale: R2 – Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio – Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 206
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 01 1847 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2014 Jan 01 1847 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 – Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1685
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 01 1359 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2014 Jan 01 1346 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


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